US Treasurys are under significant pressure for a second consecutive day. Friday’s selling has yields up 7 to 8 basis points at the long end of the curve with the 10-year yield now at 1.666%, its highest since late June. When bond prices go fall, yields rise.
And BNP Paribas says the selling is likely to continue. In a note sent out to clients on Thursday, the team of Shahid Ladha and Timothy High wrote there are several factors that point to even higher yields and a steeper yield curve in the US.
Those factors include, but are not limited to:
Expectations the consumer price index will climb to 2% by the end of the year, up from 0.8% in July.The market expecting the Fed to remain on hold, which “should allow premia to return in the curve” and limit a downturn in risky assets. Hawkish rhetoric from other central banks could allow for the return of volatility in rates markets.
As for Friday’s action here’s the scoreboard:
- 2Y +2.6 bps @ 79.6 bps 3Y +3.3 bps @ 92.9 bps 5Y +4.9 bps @ 1.23% 7Y +6.0 bps @ 1.51% 10Y +6.7 bps @ 1.666% 30Y +8.1 bps @ 2.385%
- Business Insider/Andy Kiersz, Data from Bloomberg