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Renowned statistician Nate Silver’s election forecast on Wednesday gave Donald Trump his best odds of winning since late July.
In Silver’s “polls-plus” model, the Republican nominee had a 34.7% chance of winning in November. Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton was sitting at a 65.3% chance of victory.
But the model showed the Electoral College projection tightening significantly. Silver’s model had Trump as more likely to win Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, and Ohio, the latter of which has voted in step with the nation in every election since 1964.
Clinton, in Silver’s model, held a 294.2 to 243.6 edge in the Electoral College projection. A total of 270 electoral votes are needed to secure the presidency.
The model also showed Clinton with a slim 47% to 44.5% edge in the popular vote, with Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson receiving 7.2% of the vote.
The last time Trump was above 35% in the model was July 31, when Silver’s forecast showed Trump with a 39.1% chance of winning the presidency.
Also on Wednesday, a Bloomberg poll showed Trump with a 5-point lead in Ohio – one of his biggest leads of the cycle in the Buckeye State.
The RealClearPolitics polling average has been tightening as well, with Trump now trailing Clinton by 2.3 points in a head-to-head matchup, which is the closest the two have been in the average since late July.
View the projection: