- Sean M. Haffey/Getty
- After a slow start to the season, Cortana stormed back and was on fire the final ten weeks.
- Cortana correctly picked 68% of the games overall and 75% of the games over the final ten weeks.
- Elo also had a strong showing during the regular season, correctly picking 64% of the games.
The NFL regular season is now over, and despite a slow start, Microsoft’s Cortana stormed back and won the head-to-head showdown with Elo.
We took a look at two popular systems used to pick NFL games: Cortana, Microsoft’s digital assistant, and Elo, the modeling system used by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight. In both cases, the computers are picking outright winners and not against the spread. However, each gives a likelihood of a team’s winning, which, in theory, could help measure the strength of certain lines.
Cortana won the regular season matchup, going 162-78 (68%) overall, and 111-38 (75%) over the last ten weeks (we did not track Week 17 because of the wonky nature of the final week). Elo was not far behind, going 154-86 (64%) overall.
Here are the picks for Wild Card weekend, with each model’s percent chance of winning in parentheses. Point spreads are just for reference, via Vegas Insider as of Thursday morning.
- Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) – CHIEFS (Elo 75%, Cortana 64%)
- Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams (-5.5) – FALCONS (Elo 51%), RAMS (Cortana 58%)
- Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5) – JAGUARS (Elo 59%, Cortana 69%)
- Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-7) – SAINTS (Elo 65%, Cortana 61%)