NFL WEEK 4: Our official picks for who wins this weekend

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Patrick Smith/Getty Images

The fourth week of the football season is always a nice milestone: we’re a quarter of a way through the season, and we can start to rely a little bit more on record and a little bit less on instinct.

How many good teams are there this season? In the AFC, the Patriots and Broncos are – for how many years now? – a cut above the rest. In the NFC, the Seahawks and Cardinals are both underwhelming. What do we make of the Packers? Or Carson Wentz?

This weekend, with the Giants not playing until Monday, I’m circling the Panthers vs. Falcons game among the early games, and the Chiefs at the Steelers in the late games. I’m not a believer in the Falcons at all, so we’ll see what they do against Cam Newton. Le’Veon Bell’s return should be a good one against a defense that seems to be rounding into form.

Also: watch the Ryder Cup! Also: MLB playoffs start next week: Also: the NBA starts in under a month!

Sports, it turns out, are still alive and well.

Lines, as always, courtesy of Vegas Insider.

Last week: 9-6-1

Season: 24-25-1


Miami Dolphins (+8) at Cincinnati Bengals (Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET)

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Marc Serota/Getty

Take the time to read Dan Le Batard on the death of Jose Fernandez.

The pick: Dolphins +8


Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday at 9:30 a.m. ET, in London)

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Andy Lyons/Getty

England must just LOVE American football with all these great games we give them. Speaking of England and America, get excited for the Ryder Cup! A much better way to spend your Sunday than this game.

The pick: Jaguars +2.5


Cleveland Browns (+7.5) at Washington Redskins (Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET)

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Elsa/Getty

The Browns were gifted the game last week when Ryan Tannehill fumbled with under a minute left in his own territory, and the Browns still managed to lose. At least Terrelle Pryor is fun.

The pick: Washington -7.5


Buffalo Bills (+4.5) at New England Patriots (Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET)

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Maddie Meyer/Getty

Congratulations in advance to the Patriots for going 16-0. How good will this team be when Gronk is fully healthy?

The pick: Patriots -4.5


Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at New York Jets (Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET)

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Patrick Smith/Getty Images

Might we finally see Geno Smith at some point this week? What about Trevone Boykin? Expect a low-scoring one here.

The pick: Seahawks -2.5


Carolina Panthers (-3) at Atlanta Falcons (Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET)

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Bob Leverone/AP

Cam Newton won’t throw three interceptions two weeks in a row.

The pick: Panthers -3


Detroit Lions (-3) at Chicago Bears (Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET)

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Ronald Martinez/Getty

The Cubs won 100 games this season!

The pick: Lions -3


Tennessee Titans (+5) at Houston Texans (Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET)

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Wesley Hitt/Getty

Even without JJ Watt, the Texans win this one going away.

The pick: Texans -5


Oakland Raiders (+3.5) at Baltimore Ravens (Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET)

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Maddie Meyer/Getty

Baltimore feels like fool’s gold at 3-0 with close wins against the Jaguars, Browns, and Bills.

The pick: Raiders +3.5


Denver Broncos (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET)

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Joe Robbins/Getty

Going to keep riding the Broncos until Trevor Siemian starts to play like a rookie.

The pick: Broncos -3


Dallas Cowboys (-2) at San Francisco 49ers (Sunday at 4:45 p.m. ET)

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Tom Pennington/Getty

The 49ers are terrible.

The pick: Cowboys -2


New Orleans Saints (+4) at San Diego Chargers (Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET)

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Michael Reaves/Getty

Maybe skip this one?

The pick: Chargers -4


Los Angeles Rams (+8) at Arizona Cardinals (Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET)

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Rick Scuteri/AP

Arizona is weird. After they lost to New England, they rebounded with a blowout home win. Then they were blown out by Buffalo, of all teams. Following the pattern here, they’ll win this one in a blowout.

The pick: Arizona -8


Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday at 8:30 p.m. ET)

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Sam Greenwood/Getty Images

Just not going to worry about the Steelers after last week. Also, Le’Veon Bell is back!

The pick: Steelers -4.5


New York Giants (+5) at Minnesota Vikings (Monday at 8:30 p.m. ET)

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Al Bello/Getty

Sam Bradford is going to finally have his Sam Bradford game.

The pick: Giants +6


Now check out this week’s power rankings…

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NFL POWER RANKINGS: Where are 32 teams standing going into Week 4 >