Predictions for the 10-year yield have been embarrassing

Treasury yields have come roaring back after a scramble for safety on February 11 pushed yields to their lowest levels since July 2012.

On that day, the benchmark 10-year yield touched 1.53% as the major US stock averages pressed to 21-month lows amid fears major European banks would convert their contingent convertible bonds, or Coco bonds, into equity.

Since that day, the US 10-year yield has rallied more than 40 basis points and is threatening to break back above the 2.00% level for the first time in nearly two months.

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Andy Kiersz / Business Insider, Bloomberg data

So where is the 10-year going from here?

A recent survey of economists conducted by Bloomberg found a consensus estimate of 2.00% for the end of the second quarter.

That seems to jive with the Barclay’s Global Macro Survey, which saw about two-thirds of respondents call for between 1.75% and 2.25%.

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Barclays

However, economists’ track records haven’t been too good when it comes to their 10-year guesses.

HSBC notes the benchmark yield has undershot forecasts almost every year since 2000.

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HSBC

The firm likens this to Japan’s “lost decades” when forecasters were continuously over confident an economic recovery – and higher bond yields – was just around the corner.

As inflation fell further and further from the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, so too did Japanese yields despite economists’ forecasts.

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HSBC

Of course not everyone thinks yields are going to rise, but less than 5% of respondents to Barclay’s survey see the 10-year falling below 1.50% by the end of June.

That camp would also likely include bond gurus Gary Shilling and Komal Sri-Kumar, who both predict the yield will set a new record low at 1.00% before this cycle is over.