- REUTERS/Mike Segar
After weeks of being down in the polls, Donald Trump has vaulted into a narrow lead over Hillary Clinton, according to a new national survey released Tuesday.
The CNN/ORC poll showed the Republican presidential nominee with 45% of the vote from likely voters. His Democratic rival earned 43% in a four-way race that included Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
Trump’s 2-point lead was within the poll’s margin of error of 3.5 percentage points, meaning the race is essentially tied. The real-estate mogul led by 1 point in a head-to-head race.
But Trump seems to be doing well with independent voters, a crucial bloc in any election – 49% of those voters in the CNN/ORC poll said they’d vote for Trump, while only 29% said they backed Clinton. Johnson carries a significant proportion of independents, with 16% saying they’d vote for him.
Trump, however, is in trouble with minority voters – 71% of nonwhites in the CNN/ORC poll said they preferred Clinton.
Despite Trump’s recent rise in the polls – a CNN/ORC poll from early August, for comparison, showed Clinton with an 8-point lead – most voters surveyed said they still expect Clinton to win in November.
Clinton has consistently topped Trump since general-election polling began. Trump briefly took the lead over Clinton after the Republican National Convention in July, but Clinton came out on top again after the Democrats’ convention the next week.
Another poll released Tuesday shows Clinton ahead of Trump by 4 points in a four-way race with Johnson and Stein. The NBC News/Survey Monkey poll has Clinton with 48% of the vote and Trump with 42%.
The race has been narrowing in recent weeks, with Clinton seeing her large leads over Trump erased in some polls.