These are the 2020 candidates that Democratic voters think are most likely to lose an election against Trump

  • 21 Democratic candidates have entered the 2020 presidential field so far, and it’s spurring a lively debate over who is the most likely to beat President Donald Trump in the general election.
  • To determine exactly how likely Democratic voters perceive each candidate’s chances of beating or losing to Trump, INSIDER has been conducting a recurring SurveyMonkey Audience national poll.
  • In the most recent iteration of our poll, 33.4% of Democratic voters surveyed think a generic Democratic candidate would beat Trump, 39.7% are neutral, and 26.9% think a generic Democrat would lose to Trump.
  • Here are the candidates Democratic voters think are most and least likely to lose to Trump, according to the most recent version of our survey.
  • Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.

21 Democratic candidates have entered the 2020 presidential field so far, and it’s spurring a lively discussion among Democratic voters and commentators over who is the most likely to beat President Donald Trump in the general election – the ever-elusive concept of “electability.”

While “electability” can be influenced by a number of factors including a candidate’s race and gender, we attempted to break down who Democratic voters see as the most likely to beat Trump

To determine exactly how likely Democratic voters perceive each candidate’s chances of beating or losing to Trump, INSIDER has been conducting a recurring SurveyMonkey Audience national poll. You can download every single poll here, down to the individual respondent data.

Read more about how the INSIDER 2020 Democratic primary tracker works.

At this point in the race, we’re mainly interested in using our polling to figure out:

  • What percentage of Democratic voters are familiar with each candidate in the first place.
  • How Democrats rate each candidate’s chances of beating President Donald Trump in a general election match-up.
  • If a given candidate were to drop out of the race, who their supporters would pivot to.

In the most recent iteration of our poll, 33.4% of Democratic voters surveyed think a generic Democratic candidate would beat Trump, 39.7% are neutral, and 26.9% think a generic Democrat would lose to Trump.

For our purposes, any candidate for whom more than 33% of voters think will beat Trump or for whom less than 27% think will lose to Trump is overperforming Democratic voters’ expectations.

It’s important to highlight, however, that voters perceiving a given candidate as unlikely to lose doesn’t necessarily mean they perceive the same candidate as very likely to win.

For many candidates, especially those with lower name recognition or who haven’t been in the race for very long, a substantial percentage of voters were neutral on their chances, meaning they didn’t offer up that particular candidate’s name as someone they think is either likely or unlikely to beat Trump.

Here are the candidates Democratic voters think are most and least likely to lose to Trump, ranked from who voters think is least likely to most likely, according to the most recent version of our survey:


46.9% of Democratic respondents think entrepreneur Andrew Yang would lose to Trump compared to 17.4% who think he would win, and 36% who were neutral.

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Andrew Yang
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Hollis Johnson/Business Insider

Read more about Andrew Yang’s campaign.


42.7% of people believe Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton, who has low name recognition so far, would lose to Trump, compared to 14.6% who think he would win, and 43% who were neutral.

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Democratic Rep. Seth Moulton.
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Craig Walker/The Boston Globe/Getty Images

41% of Democrats surveyed believed Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard would lose to Trump, 13.10% thought she could win, and 46% were neutral.

Read more about Tulsi Gabbard’s campaign.


While possible 2020 candidate Stacey Abrams hasn’t declared a campaign yet, 36.4% of Democratic voters believed she would lose to Trump, 19.6% think she would beat Trump, and 44% were neutral.

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Former gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams.
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Lawrence Bryant/Reuters

36% of Democratic voters believe California Rep. Eric Swalwell would lose against Trump, 17.2% think he would win, and 47% were neutral.

Read more about Eric Swalwell’s campaign.


Attitudes about Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s electability are split, with 35% of Democratic voters believing that she would lose to Trump while 31% think she would win and 33.6% neutral.

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Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
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Hollis Johnson/Business Insider

Read more about Elizabeth Warren’s campaign.


33% of Democratic voters think New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand would lose to Trump, while 17.8% believe she would win, and 50% neutral.

Read more about Kirsten Gillibrand’s campaign.


31% of Democratic voters believe former HUD Secretary Julian Castro would lose in a general election match-up against Trump while 16% believe he would win, and 53% neutral on his chances.

Read more about Julian Castro’s campaign.


While Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet, the latest entry to the Democratic field, has very low name recognition, 30% of the Democrats who do know him think he would lose, 15% think he would win, and 55% are neutral.


30% of Democratic voters believe that Gov. John Hickenlooper of Colorado would lose to Trump, 19% believe he would win, and 51% neutral.

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Former Gov. John Hickenlooper.
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Hollis Johnson/Business Insider

Read more about John Hickenlooper’s campaign.


28% of Democratic voters believe Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan would lose to Trump compared to 13% who think he would win and 59% who were neutral.

Read more about Tim Ryan’s campaign.


Of the Democratic voters who know Gov. Jay Inslee, 27% think he would lose to Trump, 21% thought he would win, and 51% are neutral.

Read more about Jay Inslee’s campaign.


27% of Democratic voters surveyed think that Sen. Amy Klobuchar would lose to Trump, with 25% believing she would win, and 49% neutral.

Read more about Amy Klobuchar’s campaign.


Democratic voters perceive South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg to have almost the same electability as a generic Democratic candidate, with 25% predicting he would lose in a general election match-up against Trump, compared to 35% who think he would win and 40% who were neutral.

Read more about Pete Buttigieg’s campaign.


24.5% of Democratic voters believe that Sen. Bernie Sanders would lose to Trump, compared to 47% who believe he would win and 28% who were neutral.

Read more about Bernie Sanders’ campaign.


24.5% of Democratic voters also think Sen. Cory Booker would lose to Trump, while 32% think he would win and 43% were neutral.

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Sen. Cory Booker.
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Loren Elliott/Reuters

Read more about Cory Booker’s campaign.


24% of Democratic voters think Rep. John Delaney would lose to Trump, but just 10% think he would win, with 66% of respondents neutral.

Read more about John Delaney’s campaign.


23.5% of Democratic voters think Sen. Kamala Harris would lose to Trump, while 40% think she would win and 36% neutral.

Read more about Kamala Harris’ campaign.


22% of Democratic voters think former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke would lose to Trump. 38.5% think he would win, and 39% are neutral.

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Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke.
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Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Read more about Beto O’Rourke’s campaign.


Former Vice President Joe Biden is considered highly electable, with 13% of Democratic voters believing he would lose to Trump compared to 69% who think he would win and 18% who were neutral.

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Former Vice President Joe Biden.
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Getty Images/Sean Rayford

Read more about Joe Biden’s campaign.