Here’s what you can expect iPhone 7 sales to look like

Apple’snewest iPhonesare here, which means it’s just about time for a whole lot of people to buy a new smartphone.

Traditionally, as this chart fromStatistashows, Apple has driven sales in a very similar pattern. The Cupertino company gains a big chunk of market share directly after launch, then steadily declines before bottoming out right before the new model launches. The mid-year release of theiPhone SEdidn’t affect this timeframe too much (particularly in the US), and generally speaking, the “S” models give a smaller lift than the “main” ones.

This year, however, it’ll be curious to see if the presumed iPhone 7 and iPhone 7 Plus have the same effect. The smartphone upgrade cycle generally dictates people to buy a new phone every two years, but these new devices are widely expected to be a second straight iterative update, not major leap forward. Ultimately, people will buy their iPhones, but this could create the first real irregularity in the chart above.