CREDIT SUISSE: Huge demographic changes in the US could hit these 14 retail stocks

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Fans at the World Men’s Curling Championships.
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Andy Clark/Reuters

The demographic makeup of the US will change dramatically over the next 10 years, and a new report from a group of Credit Suisse analysts led by Seth Sigman shows that those changes could have a big impact on consumer spending and the well-being of certain industries.

According to the report, the following demographic changes will have the biggest impact on consumer spending:

    “Lower growth in under 25-years-old cohort.” Declining birth rates will translate into a decline in the growth of people under 25 years old. The population of this group is set to increase by just 1.3% in the decade from 2016 to 2026. “Growing young adult population.” Millennials, the largest population group, are about to enter the “sweet spot for spending.” “Shrinking middle-age population.” The so-called middle-age cohort, people ages 45 to 64, is set to decline by 2.8%. “Growing older population.” The older population, people 65 years and above, is expected to grow by 37.1%.

“Our analysis is most positive for Home Improvement, Leisure-related categories (e.g., RV’s, boats), and Staple categories (Healthcare, Household Supplies, Food at Home) based on expected growth in the young adult and 65+ age cohorts, while less positive for Apparel/Footwear, General Sporting Goods, Home Furnishings, Casual Dining, based on a shrinking middle-age group,” the analysts wrote.

Following are 14 stocks Credit Suisse thinks could be negatively affected by demographic changes in the US.


Hudson’s Bay Company

source
MI

Demographic driver: Shrinking middle-age population; old population spends less

Source: Credit Suisse


JCPenney

source
MI

Demographic driver: Shrinking middle-age population; old population spends less

Source: Credit Suisse


Nordstrom

source
MI

Demographic driver: Shrinking middle-age population; old population spends less

Source: Credit Suisse


Kohl’s

source
MI

Demographic driver: Shrinking middle-age population; old population spends less

Source: Credit Suisse


Macy’s

source
MI

Demographic driver: Shrinking middle-age population; old population spends less

Source: Credit Suisse


Phillips-Van Heusen

source
MI

Demographic driver: Shrinking middle-age population; old population spends less

Source: Credit Suisse


Ralph Lauren

source
MI

Demographic driver: Shrinking middle-age population; old population spends less

Source: Credit Suisse


Denny’s

source
MI

Demographic driver: Shrinking middle-age population; old population spends less

Source: Credit Suisse


Bloomin’ Brands

source
MI

Demographic driver: Shrinking middle-age population; old population spends less

Source: Credit Suisse


Pier 1 Imports

source
MI

Demographic driver: Shrinking middle-age population; old population spends less

Source: Credit Suisse


Williams Sonoma

source
MI

Demographic driver: Shrinking middle-age population; old population spends less

Source: Credit Suisse


Dick’s

source
MI

Demographic driver: Less growth in ​under-25-year-old population.

Source: Credit Suisse


Hibbett Sports

source
MI

Demographic driver: Less growth in ​under-25-year-old population.

Source: Credit Suisse


GameStop

source
MI

Demographic driver: Less growth in ​under-25-year-old population.

Source: Credit Suisse


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