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Nate Silver on Tuesday gave Donald Trump his best chances yet of winning the November election.
Silver, the renowned statistician who runs the data-journalism website FiveThirtyEight, projected that Trump had a 44.5% chance of winning the presidency in his “Polls-plus” forecast – the one he deems most sophisticated of the three routinely updated on the site.
On Wednesday, Trump’s chances dipped, but only slightly, to 44.3%, which amounts to his second-best odds in the forecast.
The projection showed Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton winning 277.6 votes in the Electoral College, while Trump was projected to receive 260.2. In the popular vote, Silver forecast that Clinton would secure 46.5% of the total compared with 45.2% for Trump. Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson received 7% support in the projection.
The latest forecast showed Trump winning the key battleground states of Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, and Nevada, while Clinton was projected to win Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Colorado.
The polls have tightened in recent weeks, with Clinton holding just a 0.9-point lead over Trump in the RealClearPolitics polling average in a four-way race that includes Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein.
View Silver’s projection below: