It looks more and more like the Democratic wave is coming

Bernie Sanders speaks at an anti-'Trumpcare' rally in Washington, DC on May 4.

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Bernie Sanders speaks at an anti-‘Trumpcare’ rally in Washington, DC on May 4.
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Alex Wong/Getty Images

  • Democrats have a massive 17-point advantage over Republicans in a new generic congressional ballot.
  • Majorities of Americans are opposed to a host of the GOP’s policy positions, including those on marijuana, immigration, the border wall, and the recently passed tax bill.

When asked whether they’ll support Democrats or Republicans for Congress, voters say they’ll vote for Democrats by widening margins, according to recent polling.

A January Quinnipiac University poll found that Democrats have a 17-point advantage over Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections. Just 35% of Americans want Republicans to control the House, while 52% want Democrats to flip the chamber. The numbers are virtually identical for the Senate.

While the Democratic advantage is remarkably large, it’s not entirely surprising given that the president’s approval ratings have remained in the mid-30s for months, sinking to a low of 32% in a mid-December Monmouth University survey.

And large majorities of Americans are opposed to a host of the GOP’s most important policy positions, including on marijuana, immigration, the border wall, and the recently passed tax bill, according to recent polling.

Nearly 80% of Americans believe “Dreamers,” or undocumented immigrants brought to the US as children, should be permitted to stay in the US and apply for citizenship, according to the Quinnipiac poll. This includes 64% of Republicans and 92% of Democrats.

In September, the Trump administration ended the Obama-era Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, which shields 800,000 young undocumented immigrants from deportation, sparking nation-wide backlash and anxiety among immigrant communities. Earlier this month, a federal judge blocked the administration from shutting down the program, arguing that its decision was “based on a flawed legal premise.”

Joe Arpaio, the controversial former Arizona sheriff who recently announced his intention to run for the US Senate, told NPR on Thursday that the US government should deport all of the Dreamers, a position that just 11% of American voters agree with. Arpaio, who was convicted by a federal judge of criminal contempt last summer and later pardoned by Trump, is closely allied with the president.

While a large majority of Americans – 63% – oppose Trump’s plan to build a wall along the US’s southern border with Mexico, Democrats and Republicans are deeply divided in their views, with 78% of Republicans supporting the plan and 91% of Democrats opposing it.

This week, Trump continued to insist that a DACA deal with Democrats must include funding for the border wall.

Last week, Attorney General Jeff Sessions announced that the Justice Department would open the door to more aggressive prosecution of marijuana offenses, even in states where the substance has been legalized. The decision was met with opposition from both Democratic and Republican lawmakers – and 58% of voters, including 79% of Americans 18 to 34 years old, think marijuana should be legalized, according to Quinnipiac.

A dismal 32% of Americans approve of the recently passed GOP $1.5 trillion tax bill, which permanently slashed corporate taxes and temporarily reduced individual rates. Over half of Americans disapprove of the legislation, which 66% say the wealthiest Americans will benefit most from.

Quinnipiac surveyed 1,106 voters nationwide between January 5 and 9 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.