The major US stock indexes turned positive in trading on Monday after opening lower and ahead of a key speech from a Federal Reserve governor.
At 12:30 p.m. ET, the Dow was up 82 points (0.5%), the S&P 500 was up 12 points (0.6%) and the Nasdaq was up 42 points (0.8%).
But most other major indexes around the world, from Germany’s DAX to the Hang Seng in Hong Kong, were lower on Monday.
US stocks on Friday had their biggest decline since the UK’s referendum on its European Union membership about two months ago, with the Dow closing down 394 points.
In a note to clients on Sunday, David Kostin, Goldman’s chief US equity strategist, said “extreme” bullishness among investors and extended valuations were among reasons the S&P 500 could lose another 1% by year-end.
Three Fed members speak on Monday, but markets will be paying the most attention to Gov. Lael Brainard’s address in Chicago at 1:15 p.m. ET because she votes on policy. She could echo the same hawkish commentary from Rosengren that markets reacted to in Friday’s plunge.
Earlier, the Atlanta Fed president, Dennis Lockhart, said a “serious discussion” on the economy and the current level of interest rates was warranted at the coming policy meeting.
Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid said in a note on Monday that Brainard’s speech was only recently disclosed, and could be used to raise market expectations for an interest-rate hike in September, giving the Federal Open Market Committee more wiggle room. Brainard has been dovish on Fed policy in the past.
Eric Rosengren, the Boston Fed president, said in a Friday speech that the risks to the US economy were “becoming increasingly two-sided,” meaning there was just as much downside to delaying an interest-rate hike as there was in moving too soon; the Federal Reserve has been more vocal about the second scenario.
Treasurys also fell on Friday, and strategists pointed to the European Central Bank’s Thursday announcement that it was not expanding its program of bond buying as a catalyst. On Monday, the benchmark 10-year yield was up 1 basis point at 1.685%, above its pre-referendum level.
There’s no major economic data on deck Monday, with August retail sales and producer prices highlighting this week’s calendar on Thursday.