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A critical recession indicator used by the Fed just hit its highest level since the financial crisis

The New York Federal Reserve's US recession probability model hit its highest reading since the Great Recession in July.

The US economy has a 1-in-3 chance of suffering ‘total organ failure’ within a year, report finds

"We’ve observed slower global growth, lower CEO confidence, and lower capital expenditure," Russell Investments said in a recent study.

The corporate bond market is firing a ‘warning shot’ for stock investors

Weaker economic data and growing uncertainty around company debt has made the yield curve inversion more serious, according to Morgan Stanley.

Global stocks plunge after China hints it could unleash a ‘powerful’ trade war weapon

Stocks fell on Wednesday after Chinese newspapers described a ban on rare-earth exports to the US as a "powerful weapon" in the trade war.

An ‘Achilles’ heel’ in credit markets means fund managers are bracing for a recession — here’s how they’re adjusti...

Fund managers at a Moody's conference are growing wary that a US recession might happen in the next year and are tweaking their portfolios to prepare.
Ellyn Hae of The Bubble Show makes a bubble as she participates in the opening of a newly finished Ocean Explorer section at SeaWorld in San Diego, California.

The inverted yield curve will cause asset bubbles not recession, economist says

Yield curve inversion will lead to asset bubbles not recession, says Tom Porcelli, the chief US economist at RBC.

Bond yields are edging higher, easing stock market’s recession jitters

China stocks continued their slide on Tuesday on economic red flags in the bond market, while US futures signal a slight gain on Wall Street.
An extreme cycling enthusiast performs a stunt before falling into the East Lake in Wuhan, Hubei province, China.

Why everyone’s so hung up on the recession red flag called ‘the yield curve’

When "the yield curve" inverts in the bond market, recessions typically follow.

Recession fears trigger sea of red in Asian stocks; US and Europe are are only slightly lower

Warnings in the bond market sent Asian equities plummeting, but US futures and European shares were either flat or only slightly lower early Monday.

Yet another recession warning just flashed red — a Treasury ‘yield curve’ just inverted for the first time since 2007

A keenly watched measure of market sentiment on recession has just indicated that recession is increasingly in the cards.